A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
